Bigger than Nvidia? Louis Navellier Thinks So.

Editor's Note: In 2016, our friend Louis Navellier recommended Nvidia at $2.51 - split-adjusted. It went up 44,000%. He also called Apple before a 36,000% rise and Microsoft before a 60,800% climb. Now he says a new AI device coming online in Tennessee is the setup for the biggest call of his career. He's agreed to reveal the stock at the center of it - down to the ticker - for free.

Dear Reader,

In 2016, I sent my readers a simple recommendation.

Buy Nvidia... at $2.51, split-adjusted.

What happened next is now Wall Street legend.

Nvidia went up 44,000%.

The investors who acted made life-changing money.

Those who didn't have been watching from the sidelines ever since.

I'm writing today because I believe history is setting up to rhyme.

Right now, behind a razor-wire fence in the mountains of Tennessee...

At the same secretive government lab that built the atom bomb in 1945...

American scientists are completing work on a new AI computer called "Golden Dawn."

Golden Dawn will be 283 trillion times more powerful than today's leading data centers.

It will span more than 700 miles - larger than the state of Texas.

And it will accelerate AI breakthroughs by 36,000% - turning a five-year timeline into five days.

When it launches, it will instantly leapfrog every AI model on earth: ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok.

And it will trigger what I'm calling a $100 trillion reset of the AI markets.

I've identified one company - still relatively unknown, just as Nvidia was in 2016 - that I believe is best positioned for what's coming.

I'm revealing it, down to the ticker, in a new free presentation.

This is the biggest prediction of my 40-year career.

But you must act now - before May 5th.

Click here to watch it now, free of charge.

Regards,

Louis Navellier
Senior Quantitative Investment Analyst, InvestorPlace

P.S. My readers who got into Nvidia at $2.51 - split adjusted - didn't need another winner. They were set. I believe "Golden Dawn" is a similar setup - a little-known company, a massive technological shift, and a narrow window to act before the crowd catches on. Go here for the full details, including the ticker - before May 5th.

FEATURED READ

_{ASML Just Raised Guidance Again}

April 24, 2026 | Active Trader Daily Editorial

There's a tendency in this market to frame every AI-related beat as more of the same. It isn't. What ASML reported last week — and what Intel's accelerating equipment commitments confirm — represents something more structural than a cyclical upturn in chip equipment demand.

Start with the macro backdrop. The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from approximately $628 billion in 2024 to $707 billion in 2025, representing a 12.5% year-over-year expansion. That headline number matters less than what's driving it. The outlook is underpinned by extreme demand from artificial intelligence, automotive electrification, and data center expansion — though tempered by challenges including geopolitical tensions, supply chain dynamics, and talent shortages.

Rates matter here too. The 10-year Treasury has stabilized in a range that keeps capital expenditure decisions viable for hyperscalers and foundries alike. If anything, the structural case for chip infrastructure spending has strengthened as AI inference workloads — not just training — begin consuming CPU capacity at a rate that surprised even Intel's own management. The once-sleepy CPU market has taken off as agentic workloads shift compute needs beyond Nvidia's GPUs that have ruled AI thus far. That's a meaningful regime shift for anyone tracking where fab spending flows next.

The semiconductor industry is projected to reach approximately $697 billion in 2025, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in data centers and AI technologies. Semiconductor companies are expected to allocate around $185 billion to capital expenditures in 2025 to expand manufacturing capacity by 7% amid rising demand. That $185 billion in capex flows directly through companies like ASML. Every new fab — whether TSMC's Arizona expansion, Intel's Fab 52 in Ohio, or Samsung's Texas site — needs lithography equipment before it can produce a single wafer.

The Intel piece is the one traders keep underweighting. Intel saw the strongest growth in its data center business in Q1 2026, where it's starting to get traction in AI thanks to surging demand for central processing units. Revenue in that division climbed 22% to $5.1 billion. And Intel's Q1 2026 top line came in at $13.58 billion — well above the $12.42 billion Wall Street expected. That beat matters because it signals demand durability for Intel's own fab ramp, which means ASML equipment orders from Intel aren't going to slow down.

Here's the part that gets glossed over in most coverage. Lithography machines are used by every semiconductor manufacturer, and ASML has a near-monopoly on the industry with approximately 90% market share. ASML does have a total monopoly on EUV systems, as its lithography industry peers Nikon and Canon only provide older KrF or I-line lithography. That's not a competitive moat. It's a one-way gate — if you want to make chips below 7nm, you go through ASML. Period.

The technology took three decades to develop. The physics involved in EUV lithography — using 13.5nm wavelength light generated by superheated tin plasma, focused through mirrors machined to sub-atomic tolerances — are so complex that no national competitor has come close to replication. It took ASML 30 years to develop its technology, and producing those machines is extraordinarily complicated. So it's likely to be some time before anyone else comes out with a competitor. Genuine monopolies like this are exceedingly rare.

Slight tangent, but it matters: Carl Zeiss SMT in Germany supplies the precision optics for every ASML EUV system. ASML owns a 24.9% stake in Zeiss SMT. The supply chain for these machines is so concentrated, so vertically integrated through strategic partnerships, that the barriers to competition aren't just technological — they're logistical. Even if a rival replicated the physics tomorrow, they'd need years to build out the optics, laser, and precision mechanics supply chain ASML has spent decades cultivating.

Now layer in the pricing power. ASML's monopoly position in EUV lithography — no competitor has been able to replicate the technology — gives it unparalleled pricing power. Each TWINSCAN NXE:3800E system sells for approximately €200 million, while next-generation High-NA EXE:5000 systems command prices exceeding €350 million per unit. This pricing power is reflected in the sustained 51–53% gross margin, exceptional for capital equipment manufacturing.

FY 2025 Results

ASML's revenue for fiscal year 2025 totaled €32.7 billion (approximately $39 billion USD), up 15% from the previous year. For the full year, the company generated €32.7 billion in net sales, with a 52.8% gross margin and €9.6 billion in net income. Net income growth of 26.9% year-over-year. That marked a 15% rise from 2024, with earnings climbing 28.5% to 24.73 euros per share.

EUV revenue was the engine. Both current-generation Low-NA EUV scanners and next-generation High-NA EUV machines accounted for 48% of ASML's system revenue in 2025, or €11.6 billion (~$13.8 billion USD), up from 38% a year earlier. For the full year, the company shipped 48 EUV systems and 131 immersion DUV tools, up from 44 EUV scanners and 129 immersion DUV machines in 2024.

Backlog reached unprecedented levels. ASML's net bookings reached €28.0 billion ($33.4 billion USD), while the year-end backlog grew to €38.8 billion ($46.3 billion USD) — another record for the company. EUV tools accounted for 65% of ASML's backlog in late 2025, up from 62% a year before. That backlog figure is the number to anchor on. At €38.8 billion, ASML has over a full year of revenue already locked in before writing a single new order.

Q1 2026 Results — Fresh Off the Press

ASML reported Q1 2026 net sales of €8.8 billion, net income of €2.8 billion, and a gross margin of 53.0%. Basic earnings per share came in at €7.15, beating the analyst consensus of €6.00. That's a meaningful EPS beat — nearly 19% above consensus — driven by premium EUV pricing and high-margin service revenue.

Net System Sales reached €6.3 billion, marking a 9% year-over-year increase. A significant driver was the EUV segment, which contributed €4.1 billion (approximately 65% of total system sales), including revenue from two High-NA systems. This represents a substantial 28% increase in EUV revenue compared to the previous year.

The installed base business — ASML's highest-margin revenue stream — is growing rapidly. Net income grew 17% year-over-year to €2.8 billion. The Installed Base Management segment, which includes service and field options, performed strongly at €2.5 billion, up 25% year-over-year, driven by the expanding EUV installed base and high-margin performance upgrades requested by customers to increase immediate output. This recurring segment is now over 28% of quarterly revenue — and it compounds as more EUV systems enter the field each year.

2026 Full-Year Guidance — Raised Again

ASML now expects 2026 total net sales to be between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. That's the second consecutive guidance raise. The upper end of the range — €40 billion — would represent 22% growth over fiscal 2025. ASML is increasing capacity to meet customer demand, aiming for at least 80 Low-NA EUV systems in 2027, reflecting ongoing customer discussions.

Long-term: ASML sees an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion, with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%. At the midpoint of those targets, ASML would be generating roughly $62 billion in revenue at a gross margin structure more typical of software companies than capital equipment manufacturers.

U.S.-based Intel bought the world's first High-NA EUV Twinscan EXE:5200B lithography tool with 0.55 numerical aperture optics, designed for mass production of chips using next-generation process technologies such as Intel's 14A (1.4nm-class). That isn't a footnote. Intel is the tip of the spear on the most advanced chipmaking technology ever deployed commercially.

Intel was the first to commit, placing an order for the TWINSCAN EXE:5000 in 2018 and the more advanced EXE:5200 in 2022. The first modules of the EXE:5000 were shipped to Intel's Oregon facility in December 2023 for R&D, with the full system operational by early 2024. No other chipmaker was this aggressive in securing High-NA capacity. Determined not to repeat mistakes of the past, Intel jumped to the front of the line as the first to implement High-NA EUV machines. Ironically, it's TSMC this time that has opted to wait, with TSMC management citing cost reasons.

ASML's High-NA EUV capacity is extremely limited, producing only five to six units annually, with a single machine priced at approximately $370–380 million. Only a handful of financially strong chipmakers — including TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel — can afford such equipment. At five to six units per year, Intel's early and aggressive position in the queue isn't just a technology bet. It's a strategic supply chain lock that could provide process leadership for years.

The results from those machines are beginning to show. According to Intel's senior engineer Steve Carson, ASML's High-NA machines are twice as reliable as the previous generation in early tests. They also cut processing from three exposures and 40 steps to just one exposure and a single-digit number of steps, saving time and cost. That's a manufacturing efficiency leap that translates directly into yield improvement and cost structure — two variables that determine Intel's ability to compete for external foundry customers.

Intel's latest PC and data center processors are made on the 18A process node at a giant new fab in Arizona. For now, Intel remains the only major customer of its 18A chip fabs, despite 18A being technologically similar to TSMC's 2-nanometer node. Intel's Core Ultra Series 3 processor started selling in PCs in January, while its newest Xeon 6+ data center processors hit the market in March. Shortly after, Google committed to using multiple generations of the Intel CPU to run AI workloads in its data centers.

There's also the Terafab development worth watching. Intel announced it will be joining Musk's Terafab chip complex in Austin, Texas, to help design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale for SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla. During Tesla's first-quarter earnings call, Musk said Tesla plans to use Intel's forthcoming 14A process to produce chips at the facility. If that deal scales, Intel's ASML equipment pipeline — specifically for 14A High-NA EUV systems — expands meaningfully.

The semiconductor equipment sector is bifurcating. At the top end — advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory — ASML is extracting maximum pricing and volume. Management said semiconductor growth is solidifying, driven by AI infrastructure. Memory customers are described as sold out for much of the year, while logic customers continue to ramp 2nm and add capacity across multiple advanced nodes.

The institutional flow story is playing out through downstream validation. On March 24, SK Hynix disclosed it will buy 11.95 trillion won — roughly $8 billion — worth of EUV tools from ASML, with delivery by December 31, 2027. Bernstein analyst David Dao estimates it covers about 30 machines, aimed squarely at ramping high-bandwidth memory for AI. That's one order. One customer. Representing a material percentage of ASML's annual revenue. At average EUV pricing of $250 million to $300 million per unit, the deal alone rivals a quarter of ASML's 2025 revenue. Samsung plans to secure approximately 20 EUV systems for its Pyeongtaek P5 fab site.

The geographic rotation within ASML's revenue is worth flagging for traders. China's share of net system sales fell sharply to 19% in Q1 2026 (from 36% in Q4 2025), consistent with management's expectation of approximately 20% for the full year. This regional decline was effectively countered by a surge in South Korea, which jumped to 45% of total sales, highlighting ASML's reduced vulnerability to export controls in China. The market initially sold that off — ASML shares fell roughly 6% on earnings day — but the underlying revenue composition is actually improving in quality. Korea and the U.S. are higher-value customers buying advanced EUV; China was predominantly DUV.

Peers like Applied Materials and Lam Research benefit from the same capex cycle, but without the pricing monopoly. Export restrictions on advanced semiconductor chips and equipment have been impacting every company in the space, including Applied Materials and Lam Research. Applied Materials supplies equipment used in chip fabrication, including deposition and etching tools essential for both advanced and mature nodes. The distinction matters: ASML's products are irreplaceable at the advanced node level; AMAT and LRCX face more substitution risk at mature nodes.

ASML is not cheap by conventional metrics. At current prices around $1,500, the stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio above 7x and a P/E around 40x. For a capital equipment company, those multiples would normally be difficult to justify. But ASML isn't a normal capital equipment company.

ASML reported Q1 2026 total net sales of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion, with a 53.0% gross margin. Net income represented 31.4% of sales, and basic earnings per share were €7.15, indicating strong profitability. A 31% net income margin on capital equipment is the kind of number that justifies a premium multiple. Compare that to the broader semiconductor equipment peer group, which typically operates at net margins of 15–22%.

Analyst sentiment is constructive. According to analysts, ASML's price target averages approximately €1,464 with a max estimate of €1,700. Of 46 analysts rating ASML stock in the past three months, most backed the strong buy trend, with the overall rating calculated as buy. RBC Capital has raised its ASML price target to $1,700. Bernstein sits even higher. The range is wide — reflecting genuine uncertainty around export controls and China normalization — but the consensus direction is clear.

The dividend trajectory is also worth noting. ASML intends to declare a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per ordinary share, a 17% increase compared to 2024. ASML also announced a new share buyback program of up to €12 billion to be executed by December 31, 2028. Capital return discipline at this scale, while simultaneously investing in High-NA R&D and capacity, is only possible because the monopoly generates cash well in excess of reinvestment needs.

ASML has been constructive on the tape since its March 2026 low near $1,304. The current uptrend began from March 30, 2026, with a total price change during that trend of approximately +15.4%. The stock is currently working on a cup base with a technical buy point near $1,547 per standard breakout analysis.

Key structural levels to monitor:

Volume has been somewhat mixed post-earnings. The initial selloff on April 15 — approximately 6% intraday despite a top-and-bottom-line beat — was the market digesting the China revenue compression and the absence of disclosed order numbers for the first time. This is the first quarter where ASML has not disclosed order numbers, which are a typically closely-watched metric by investors. CEO Fouquet said that ASML's order intake continues to be very strong. The non-disclosure will likely remain a minor overhang until the market adjusts its information inputs. It's worth watching whether the tape reclaims the $1,547 breakout level on volume in the coming sessions.

VWAP from the April 15 earnings date sits roughly in the $1,480–$1,500 zone. Reclaiming that on a closing basis with above-average volume would be a constructive signal. Sustained trade below $1,430 shifts risk toward the March low.

Bull Case — Probability: ~40%

ASML executes on the upper end of its €36–40 billion 2026 guidance range. Customer capacity expansion — particularly from Intel's 14A ramp, TSMC's advanced logic buildout, and Samsung/SK Hynix memory expansion — drives EUV unit shipments toward 65–70 for the year. High-NA adoption accelerates beyond the two units per quarter pace seen in Q1 2026. High-NA EUV generates over €2 billion in revenue by 2027, with initial EXE:5000 systems already shipping for evaluation and volume production systems beginning to generate meaningful revenue in late 2026 and 2027. Intel's Terafab deal with Musk scales and creates a new pipeline of external foundry orders for Intel's 14A node, pulling forward additional ASML equipment demand. Bernstein target of $1,971 becomes the relevant level. P/E expands modestly on multiple re-rating as institutional investors price in 2030 revenue guidance of €44–60 billion.

Base Case — Probability: ~45%

ASML delivers €37–38 billion in 2026 revenue, in-line with the midpoint of raised guidance. EUV shipments hit approximately 60 Low-NA units for the year as guided. The €38.8 billion order backlog provides strong revenue visibility. China settles at approximately 20% of revenue — painful on the headline but structurally cleaner as Korea, U.S., and Japan absorb the gap. Intel's 18A commercial ramp progresses with improving yield, but 14A High-NA mass production doesn't meaningfully contribute until 2027–2028. Stock trades in a $1,450–$1,650 range for most of 2026, driven by earnings cadence rather than multiple expansion. Dividend growth and buybacks provide floor support.

Bear Case — Probability: ~15%

Export controls on DUV equipment to China are legislatively tightened further — a real risk given the bipartisan bill already proposed in the U.S. that would restrict DUV sales beyond existing EUV bans. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers proposed a bill that would cut off ASML's sale of DUV machines to Chinese chip companies, impacting its already shrinking sales there. If that bill passes in its aggressive form, near-term DUV revenue headwinds exceed current management guidance of ~20% China exposure. Simultaneously, Intel's 18A yield issues worsen, delaying the 14A pipeline and reducing near-term High-NA order flow. Supply chain constraints — particularly in immersion system components — cap unit volume upside. Stock trades toward the $1,200–$1,300 range. The lowest analyst target on the street sits at $950, representing deep bear territory that would require a systemic industry demand collapse.

ASML is not a day-trade instrument. Average daily volume in the $1.5–2.5 billion range makes it liquid enough for institutional-sized positions, but the stock moves on macro catalysts and earnings beats more than intraday noise. Here's how disciplined traders might think about positioning:

What ASML represents in the current market environment is rare: a genuine monopoly, sitting at the critical junction of two of the most powerful structural trends of this decade — AI infrastructure buildout and advanced semiconductor onshoring. The earnings also validate concerns about semiconductor supply chain concentration. A single company in the Netherlands controls the technology required for every advanced chip on the planet.

Intel's aggressive adoption of High-NA EUV is not just an Intel story. It's a validation of the technology roadmap that underpins ASML's next decade of revenue growth. CEO Christophe Fouquet attributed the guidance upgrade to customers accelerating their capacity buildouts in response to surging AI chip demand. The world's largest chipmakers — TSMC, Samsung, and Intel — are investing faster than expected, and ASML is the primary beneficiary.

The China headwind is real. The export control risk is real. Yield uncertainty on Intel's 18A is real. None of those things change the structural fact that there are 17 new semiconductor factories planned or under construction in the United States, with expansions planned at seven other factories — and all of them will need lithography machines. ASML is the only game in town for the EUV machines required to make the most advanced chips.

The question for traders isn't whether ASML matters. It's whether the current setup offers the entry discipline the position demands. Watch the $1,547 level. Respect the China headline risk. Size accordingly. And don't confuse a 6% post-earnings pullback — on a record quarter and guidance raise — with something structural breaking.

Preparation beats prediction. Always.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.