First a message from our friends at EnergX [sponsor]
This Metal is Up 122% in the Past 12 Months
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Demand for lithium isn't going anywhere, projected to grow 5X by 2040. That's creating a massive opportunity for investors in technologies aiming to bridge that gap.
Enter EnergyX. This Texas-based company patented tech that recovers up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods in days instead of months.
This combination of technological advancement and market demand bode well. No wonder General Motors already led a $50M investment round in the company.
In the past 24 months alone, EnergyX has raised nearly $100M from retail investors, acquired close to 150k acres of lithium-rich land across the US and Chile, and announced what could be one of the largest DLE lithium production facilities in the U.S.
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For example, their recently announced expansion into nuclear energy will supply critical lithium isotopes for fusion and fission. With Bank of America valuing the nuclear energy market at $10 trillion, that's a lot of new upside.
Disclosures
This is a paid advertisement for EnergyX's Reg A offering. Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please consider this disclosure alongside EnergyX's offering materials. EnergyX's Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Offers and sales may be made only by means of the qualified offering circular. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com
What Do I Do With Intel?
Intel is one of those stocks that can feel impossible to “hold correctly” because it’s not trading like a normal megacap.
On any given day, INTC can move on:
a foundry milestone headline,
a wafer supply constraint update,
an earnings guide that implies margin pressure,
a competitor’s product cycle,
or macro/rate volatility that compresses or expands multiples.
As of this morning, Intel is around $47.13.
That price matters because it’s right around where many analysts cluster their targets—Investing.com shows an average 12-month price target around 47.17, with a wide dispersion between high and low estimates.
In other words: the Street is not in agreement. The market is demanding proof.
So the question “What do I do with Intel?” really breaks into two different problems:
What is Intel today, as a business—right now?
What is Intel trying to become, and what’s the probability it gets there?
Then we turn that into something practical: a trader’s action plan (suggestive, not definitive) that matches your time horizon and your tolerance for drawdowns.
1) What Intel Actually Does (And Why It’s More Than “PC CPUs”)
Intel is now best understood as three big businesses under one ticker:
A) Client Computing Group (PC CPUs + platforms)
This is still Intel’s largest engine by revenue. In 2025, Intel reported $32.2B in Client Computing revenue.
This business is heavily cyclical (PC demand, OEM inventory, Windows refresh cycles), and it’s also where Intel has faced pressure from both:
AMD’s Ryzen competition, and
ARM-based encroachment (Apple Silicon and broader ARM ecosystem momentum).
B) Data Center and AI (Xeon CPUs + AI adjacent)
Intel’s “Data Center and AI” segment reported $16.9B in 2025 revenue and was up 5% year over year.
The most important point for traders: AI doesn’t only mean GPUs. Even in an AI capex cycle, the CPU remains a critical piece of the server bill of materials—especially for orchestration, virtualization, memory control, and general compute.
And we’re seeing real-world demand pressure: Reuters reported server CPU lead times stretching for both Intel and AMD in China, attributing part of the squeeze to AI infrastructure investment spilling over into broader server components.
C) Intel Foundry (manufacturing + advanced packaging)
This is the part the market debates daily. Intel wants to be not only a chip designer but also a foundry provider—a U.S./Europe manufacturing counterweight to Asia concentration.
In 2025, Intel Foundry reported $17.8B in revenue, but it also posted a massive operating loss of $10.318B for the year.
That number is central to the “What do I do with Intel?” decision, because it explains the stock’s personality: Intel is funding a future state while today’s profitability is constrained.
2) The State of Intel’s Financials: The “Why is this still hard?” section
Intel’s most recent full-year picture (2025) looks like this:
Revenue: $52.9B
GAAP EPS: $(0.06) and non-GAAP EPS $0.42
Cash from operations: $9.7B for the year
In Q4 2025:
Revenue: $13.7B (down 4% YoY)
Non-GAAP gross margin: 37.9%
And for Q1 2026, Intel guided to:
Revenue: $11.7B to $12.7B
This guidance matters because Intel itself flagged that available supply is expected to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond.
Active trader translation:
Intel is in a period where the stock can sell off even on “okay” results if the guide implies:
margin compression from mix,
ramp costs from new nodes,
or constraints that prevent demand from translating into revenue.
That’s why Intel often trades like a “show me” story.
3) The Turnaround Engine: 18A and Why It’s So Important
If you want to understand Intel’s next 12–24 months, learn one term:
Intel 18A
Intel is positioning 18A as a major inflection node:
Up to 15% better performance per watt and ~30% higher density vs Intel 3 (per Intel).
Key innovations include RibbonFET (gate-all-around transistor) and PowerVia (backside power delivery).
Intel has said 18A is ramping toward high-volume manufacturing, and its own communications emphasize leading-edge manufacturing in the U.S.
Why traders should care:
18A is not just a technology milestone—it’s the credibility bridge between:
Intel as a “legacy CPU company,” and
Intel as a competitive process leader + credible foundry provider.
If 18A executes on schedule and yields ramp cleanly, it can improve:
Intel’s cost structure (less reliance on outsourcing),
product competitiveness (client and server),
and foundry customer confidence (external revenue potential).
If it doesn’t, the bear case gets louder quickly.
4) What Intel Is Building Next (Products That Matter to the Stock)
A) AI PC push: Panther Lake on 18A
Intel has positioned Panther Lake as an AI PC platform built on 18A and has highlighted the node’s performance-per-watt and density improvements.
For Intel, the AI PC narrative is less about hype and more about protecting the PC franchise from:
AMD’s Ryzen AI positioning,
and the broader ARM ecosystem’s efficiency story.
B) Data center: Xeon demand and supply constraints
Intel’s Xeon backlog/lead-time dynamic matters because it signals something counterintuitive:
You can have strong demand,
but still struggle if supply is constrained or if manufacturing mix is suboptimal.
Reuters’ reporting on server CPU delays reinforces that the CPU side of the AI buildout is not “dead”—it’s strained.
C) AI accelerators: Gaudi 3 as a “good enough” wedge
Intel’s Gaudi 3 messaging has emphasized system configurations with eight accelerators, 128GB HBM, and 3.7 TB/s bandwidth, aimed at large model workloads.
Realistically: Nvidia dominates the AI accelerator stack, but Intel doesn’t need to “win GPUs” to improve sentiment—it needs credible traction that proves it can participate in the capex cycle.
5) Who Are Intel’s Real Competitors (And What Risk They Pose)
AMD: the most direct CPU threat
AMD is Intel’s cleanest competitor in x86 CPUs:
In mobile x86 CPUs, Mercury Research figures cited by CRN put Intel at 78.1% vs AMD 21.9% (Q3 2025).
In servers, Reuters reported Intel’s share has fallen from over 90% (2019) to about 60% in 2025, while AMD has grown to over 20%.
Risk to Intel:
AMD can pressure Intel in the segments that matter most for profitability: data center and premium client.
Nvidia: the AI gravity well
Nvidia is not Intel’s direct CPU competitor, but Nvidia can influence Intel’s valuation indirectly by setting the market’s AI expectations. If investors decide “AI = Nvidia,” the rest of the stack trades as second order.
TSMC and Samsung: the foundry superpowers
TSMC is the benchmark for leading-edge manufacturing scale and execution. If Intel Foundry is going to be taken seriously, it needs:
process competitiveness (18A),
packaging leadership,
and customer wins that prove it’s not just “internal transfer pricing.”
6) What Could Go Right (The Bull Case That Actually Matters)
Here are the most “stock-moving” positive paths:
1) 18A execution builds credibility (and margin leverage)
If 18A ramps smoothly, Intel can reduce costly mix issues and show that product competitiveness is real—not promised.
2) Data center stabilizes + AI buildout keeps pulling CPUs along
Even if GPUs capture mindshare, the server refresh cycle can still be CPU supportive—especially if supply improves as Intel expects beyond Q1.
3) Foundry losses narrow (even before the foundry “wins” big)
Intel doesn’t need Foundry to be wildly profitable immediately; it needs a visible path to loss narrowing and higher utilization, which markets often reward ahead of the actual inflection.
4) Government/strategic support lowers funding risk
Intel has CHIPS Act-related support: the U.S. Department of Commerce award is up to $7.86B in direct funding, tied to projects across multiple states.
This doesn’t “fix” execution, but it can reduce worst-case capital stress narratives.
7) What Could Go Wrong (The Bear Case You Must Respect)
1) Foundry losses persist longer than investors can tolerate
Intel Foundry’s 2025 operating loss number is not subtle: $10.318B.
If those losses stay elevated while revenue doesn’t scale meaningfully, INTC can remain trapped in a “high capex, low payoff” valuation box.
2) Process timing slips or yields disappoint
18A is the keystone. Any sign of:
delayed high-volume ramp,
weak yields,
or customer hesitancy
can reprice the stock quickly, because the entire strategy stack depends on it.
Server CPU share losses are not just “bragging rights”—they hit gross margin and operating leverage. Reuters’ share trend is the warning sign.
4) AI narrative stays “GPU-only,” Intel remains a side character
If the market continues to focus narrowly on accelerators and undervalues CPU/platform wins, Intel can do “okay” operationally and still struggle on sentiment.
5) Geopolitical/export risks and supply chain shocks
The Reuters report about China lead times is a reminder: demand, supply, and geopolitics can collide in unexpected ways.
8) The Trader’s Question: “What do I do with Intel?” (Action Plan)
This is not a one-size answer. Here are three practical paths, depending on how you’re positioned.
Path A: You’re a long-term holder who wants exposure but hates drawdowns
Goal: stay in the story, reduce regret.
Suggestive plan:
Keep a core position (smaller than you wish it could be).
Use a collar (sell an out-of-the-money call to finance a put) around key events (earnings, major macro prints).
Treat Intel as a “2-year execution bet,” not a quarterly trade.
Why this fits Intel: the upside is tied to execution milestones; the downside is headline-driven.
Path B: You’re a swing trader trying to exploit the volatility
Goal: avoid marrying the stock.
Suggestive plan:
Trade INTC around catalysts (earnings, foundry milestones, major competitor launches).
Use defined-risk spreads, not naked options, because implied volatility can be fickle.
Let the market “prove it” after selloffs—Intel can stay cheap-looking for a long time in capex-heavy regimes.
Path C: You’re underwater and need a “damage control” framework
Goal: stop the emotional bleed.
Suggestive plan:
Decide a time horizon: “Am I giving this 6 weeks or 18 months?”
If short horizon: consider reducing exposure and re-entering only if the stock proves trend repair.
If long horizon: consider writing covered calls against part of the position to reduce cost basis over time—accepting that you may cap upside in exchange for psychological relief.
9) Hedging Intel Risk With Other Investments (Without Pretending It’s Perfect)
If Intel is your “execution risk” chip bet, you can hedge in a few ways:
Hedge type 1: Competitive hedge
Pair Intel exposure with a partial position in AMD (CPU competitor)
This protects you if the risk is “Intel slips, AMD takes share.”
Hedge type 2: Foundry/leading-edge hedge
A partial position in TSMC (TSM)
This hedges the “Intel Foundry execution disappoints” risk.
Hedge type 3: AI cycle hedge
A partial position in Nvidia
This hedges the “AI spend continues but Intel doesn’t capture the narrative” risk.
Hedge type 4: Sector hedge
Use a semi ETF (SMH/SOXX) to reduce single-name execution dependency.
10) The Bottom Line
Intel is not a simple turnaround—it’s a multi-variable probability trade:
The PC business is big but cyclical ($32.2B in 2025).
Data Center and AI is meaningful and growing ($16.9B in 2025).
Foundry is strategically important but still a financial drag ($10.318B operating loss in 2025).
18A is the hinge, with Intel claiming notable perf/watt and density gains vs Intel 3.
Competitors are real, with Intel’s server share trending down and AMD’s up over time.
So “What do I do with Intel?” becomes:
If you believe Intel can execute 18A and show a path to narrower foundry losses, you manage risk and stay involved.
If you think execution risk remains too high, you either hedge it tightly or step aside and revisit when the tape confirms improvement.
The market will keep asking for proof. Your job as an active trader is to own the bet size and the risk structure, not the narrative.
Editorial Disclaimer
This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All market strategies involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own analysis or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.